A new opinion poll has put Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at the front of the race for the French presidency, underlining how divided the country’s politics have become ahead of the 2027 election. The survey, carried out by Toluna Harris Interactive between 3 and 5 November, places Le Pen well ahead in the first round, while Mélenchon is projected to reach the run-off in every scenario tested.
FAKTA
- Pollster: Toluna Harris Interactive
- Fieldwork: 3–5 November 2026, among 2,101 registered voters
- Marine Le Pen: 34–36% in the first round, across five scenarios
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 18–19%, reaching the run-off in all five scenarios
- Election dates: first round on 18 April 2027, run-off on 2 May 2027
Le Pen holds a clear lead
Le Pen, who leads the National Rally, would top the first-round vote with between 34% and 36% depending on the candidate line-up tested. A similar poll last month placed her slightly higher, at between 35% and 37%. The figures confirm that she remains the strongest single candidate in the field, months before voters go to the polls.
Le Pen has reached the second round of the presidential election twice before, in 2017 and in 2022. On both occasions she was defeated by Emmanuel Macron, who is now approaching the end of his second term and cannot seek another consecutive term under France’s presidential term limits.
Mélenchon reaches the run-off in every scenario
Mélenchon, the leader of France Unbowed, is projected to reach the second round in all five scenarios tested, with either 18% or 19% of first-round support. He has contested the presidency three times before, in 2012, 2017 and 2022, but has never advanced beyond the first round. His latest standing marks a notable change in his position ahead of the campaign.
The survey also tested a possible second-round contest between Le Pen and Mélenchon. Its findings indicate that Le Pen would win that contest comfortably. The poll measures voting intentions and does not guarantee the final result.
A divided field and a succession race
Behind the two leading candidates, the field remains crowded. Centre-left politician Raphaël Glucksmann and former prime minister Édouard Philippe were both measured at around 11% to 14% in the scenarios tested, with other contenders further behind. No other candidate came close to the two leaders in any of the five line-ups.
The results point to a campaign shaped by political polarisation. France’s political centre has weakened during Macron’s presidency, while economic pressure has added to the strain on the country’s politics. These conditions have created more space for parties at both ends of the spectrum, and the latest figures suggest the 2027 contest could be fought between candidates from sharply different political camps.
The campaign is expected to develop further as parties present their candidates and policies. Voters will decide who succeeds Macron when his presidency ends, with the first round scheduled for 18 April 2027. More European news is available on Watan News.
