The world oil market will return to an oil market surplus in the final quarter of 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, 13 November, as Middle East exports recover faster than global demand despite continued attacks on shipping.
Oil supply will average 105 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report, 1.7 million barrels per day higher than forecast demand. The IEA had previously forecast a fourth-quarter supply deficit.
FAKTA
- Report: IEA monthly oil market report, published Friday, 13 November 2026
- Q4 2026 supply: 105 million barrels per day on average
- Q4 2026 surplus: 1.7 million barrels per day above forecast demand
- First surplus since: The outbreak of the war in Iran, according to the IEA
- Emergency reserves: 71 million barrels to be made available by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel
- Oil price reaction: Brent crude gave up earlier gains after the report, last down 0.1% at $95.71 a barrel
- 2026 demand: Forecast to fall by 2.7 million barrels per day to 102.3 million barrels per day
- 2027 surplus: About 3.8 million barrels per day expected
Why Supply Has Overtaken Demand
The agency said Middle East exports are recovering more quickly than worldwide demand, even while attacks on shipping continue. “The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran,” the agency said in the report.
Other analysts have likewise forecast a return to excess supply. JPMorgan last week projected a global surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
What the Oil Market Surplus Means for Prices
Oil prices reversed earlier gains after the IEA report was released at 0900 GMT. Brent crude was last down 0.1% at $95.71 a barrel, as traders weighed the prospect of ample supply against the risks still facing shipping in the Gulf.
| IEA forecast | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| World oil demand | 102.3 million barrels per day (down 2.7 million) | Rebound of 2 million barrels per day |
| Supply vs demand | Q4 surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day | Surplus of about 3.8 million barrels per day |
Emergency Reserves Add to Supply
The agency also gave more details of remaining volumes to come from a record release of oil from its members’ emergency reserves pledged in March. It said 71 million barrels would be made available by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel to ease market tightness.
The Outlook for 2027
World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels per day, before rebounding by 2 million barrels per day in 2027, the IEA said, little changed from its previous forecasts. For 2027, the IEA sees the supply surplus at about 3.8 million barrels per day, slightly down from a 3.94 million barrels per day surplus forecast last month.
Conclusion
The IEA’s forecast marks a clear change of direction for the oil market: after months in which war and shipping attacks kept supplies tight, production is now running ahead of demand. For consumers, a sustained surplus could ease pressure on fuel prices, but the agency’s own figures show the balance remains fragile while conflict in the region continues.
