UK house prices stalled completely in September, recording zero growth on both a monthly and annual basis, according to the latest Lloyds house price index. The average home is now valued at £298,441, as rising borrowing costs and uncertainty around the upcoming Budget kept buyers on the sidelines.
The figures, published on 7 October, show a market frozen in place: prices were flat against August and against September last year, following a 0.3 per cent monthly fall the month before. Behind the national standstill, however, the picture is sharply divided between the capital and the rest of the country.
London Falls While the Nations Rise
London’s property market bore the brunt of the slowdown. House prices in the capital fell 2.2 per cent year on year to £531,548, a steeper drop than August’s 1.5 per cent decline. The South East followed closely with a 2.1 per cent annual fall to £380,829, while Eastern England dropped 1.6 per cent to £330,151.
The contrast with the rest of the UK could hardly be sharper. Northern Ireland led the risers with 7.4 per cent annual growth to £231,917, followed by Scotland at 3.4 per cent (£223,330), the North East at 2.4 per cent (£184,546) and the North West at 1.9 per cent (£248,932). Wales rose 1.2 per cent to £231,287.
Mortgage Rates Hit a Three-Year High
The flatlining market comes as the cost of borrowing jumped again. On Monday, the average five-year fixed homeowner mortgage rate on the market reached the 6 per cent mark for the first time in three years, according to financial information website Moneyfacts.
Andrew Asaam, mortgages director at Lloyds, described the market as “fairly subdued,” noting that prices have so far proved resilient during a period of higher mortgage rates driven by shifting expectations around the Bank of England’s base rate. He said confidence has long been a key driver of housing market activity and will play an important role in shaping demand into 2027.
Ian Futcher, a financial planner at wealth manager Quilter, warned the market faces “gathering dark clouds on several fronts, with affordability, confidence and borrowing costs all coming under pressure.” The forthcoming Budget, he said, is adding another layer of uncertainty, with some buyers sitting on their hands until there is greater clarity on the government’s tax and housing policy agenda.
The Iran War’s Shadow Over Borrowing Costs
Analysts tie the rise in mortgage rates to the conflict involving Iran, which has pushed energy prices higher and unsettled financial markets. Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said the year had been “a story of rising energy prices and stalling house prices,” and predicted that downward price pressure would continue through the final months of the year as higher mortgage rates feed through to buyers.
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, said the high cost of fuel, rising energy bills, the upcoming Budget and the prospect of higher mortgage payments are “all giving buyers reason to pause.” Nathan Emerson, chief executive of property body Propertymark, added that some fluctuation in prices is unsurprising given continued pressure across the global economy.
Regional Snapshot: September 2026
| Region | Average price | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| London | £531,548 | −2.2% |
| South East | £380,829 | −2.1% |
| Eastern England | £330,151 | −1.6% |
| South West | £299,572 | −1.4% |
| UK average | £298,441 | 0.0% |
| Wales | £231,287 | +1.2% |
| Scotland | £223,330 | +3.4% |
| Northern Ireland | £231,917 | +7.4% |
FAKTA
- UK house prices recorded 0.0% monthly and 0.0% annual growth in September, according to Lloyds.
- The average UK home was valued at £298,441 in September 2026.
- London prices fell 2.2% year on year to £531,548 — the sharpest regional decline.
- The average five-year fixed mortgage rate broke the 6% mark for the first time in three years.
- Rising mortgage costs are linked to energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict.
- Northern Ireland was the strongest performer, with prices up 7.4% on the year.
What Comes Next
There are glimmers of underlying demand: new enquiries from prospective buyers are at their highest since February, according to Lloyds. But experts agree that the direction of mortgage rates — and whether cost-of-living pressures prove temporary — will decide the market’s path through winter and into 2027.
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